Today’s world is fast moving and wrapped up by social media. The norm is a deluge of high frequency but low value interactions. Thinking slow attempts to prioritise quality over quantity. In our professional roles we are used to the idea that financial statements (and environmental performance) is heavily dependent on assumptions. This covers; goodwill, property valuations, scope 2 carbon emissions and may other indicators. One lesson one we learned is that you have to be sure about the basis of preparation for numbers before making any conclusions. Our law of assumptions is that the less defensible they are then the deeper they will be buried.
With that background we looked at the famous IC paper, the more we looked the less we liked.
In the fullness of time, we are certain that the COVID-19 episode will be seen as the most destructive overreaction to a perceived threat in history. The reason is that nobody thought slow. The model that produced the 510,000 death estimates contains assumptions that cannot easily be justified, in fact cannot be justified at all (IFR). Some thinking slow would have suggested a maximum death toll of 150,000 (still a large number) but this generates a completely different and less destructive policy response.
We hope you find the material we have produced interesting..